Market focus remains on US cereals and soy crops.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Nutrition and Assessment (WASDE) report on Tuesday, June 11, US average crop yields are likely to decline, which is indicated by serious delays in planting.
Forecasts for the expected average corn and soybean yields in the US this year over the past few weeks continue to deteriorate as planting delays have stretched across most of the corn belt.
The yield potential drops for corn planted after the second or third week of May, all other things being equal. Although progress accelerated last week due to drier weather, maize crops rose above average after May 25.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture weekly progress report, after May 25, about 25 percent of corn sown in 18 major maize producing states was sown, representing only 16.8 percent of the average between 1986 and 2018.
Given the late planting, a conservative estimate of corn yields of approximately 170 bushels per acre, which is 4.5 bushels below the current USDA forecast, seems reasonable. For soybeans, the average yield is projected at 47.8 bushels, which is 1.7 bushels lower than the current USDA forecast and meets current conditions.
The WASDE June 11 report is due to provide USDA's first official corn and soybean information this year. The June 28 report on crop areas will be the next important indicator.
